Vivendi is no longer the conglomerate that investors knew two years ago. Since the spin-off at the end of 2024, the listed perimeter has changed profoundly: the publishing activities have exited the group, and Vivendi’s stock now represents a structure akin to a media and cash holding. For anyone considering buying this stock in 2024, understanding this new perimeter is the first reflex to have before making any decision.
New perimeter of Vivendi after the spin-off: what the stock really represents
Imagine buying an apartment in a building. If the owner sells two floors in the meantime, the value of your unit changes, even if the address remains the same. This is exactly what happened with Vivendi.
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With the creation of Louis Hachette Group, the publishing activities (Hachette Livre, Lagardère) have left the listed perimeter. Vivendi mainly retains Canal+ and residual holding-type stakes. Analysts who still refer to a “diversified media group” describe a Vivendi that no longer exists.
Before exploring the strategies for investing in Vivendi, one must accept this reality: you are not investing in a conglomerate, but in a refocused holding whose valuation largely depends on Canal+ and the management of available cash.
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This distinction has a direct consequence on the price. The market generally applies a holding discount on this type of structure, meaning that the sum of the parts is worth more than the stock price. For a patient investor, this discount can be an opportunity. For an impatient investor, it can become a trap.
Vivendi share buybacks: the lever that few investors monitor
When a company buys back its own shares, it reduces the number of shares outstanding. Each remaining share then represents a larger slice of the pie. It’s a simple mechanism, but its effects are often underestimated.
Vivendi has intensified its share buyback programs since the spin-off of UMG and the gradual decrease of the dividend. This shift reflects a change in philosophy: the group now prioritizes a total return logic rather than just distributed dividends.
Why does this choice matter to you? Because most articles on Vivendi focus on the dividend per share, which has significantly dropped in recent years. The 2024 dividend is set at €0.04 per share, down from €0.25 in 2023. Taken in isolation, this figure is discouraging. However, when placed within a strategy of massive buybacks, it takes on a different meaning.
What share buybacks concretely change
- The reduction of the float mechanically supports the price, all else being equal, by decreasing the supply of shares available in the market
- Each share retained in the portfolio gains relative weight in the company, increasing your exposure to future results without spending an additional euro
- The buyback creates an optionality for a future capital operation (tender offer, delisting), a scenario frequently discussed around the Bolloré group
An investor focused solely on dividend yield will miss this dynamic.
Canal+ internationally: the strategic engine of the refocused Vivendi
Canal+ is no longer just the encrypted French channel that your parents know. Its international growth, particularly in Africa, is the main value driver for the group.
Have you noticed that streaming platforms are fighting to conquer markets outside Europe and North America? Canal+ has gotten ahead in this area, with a growing subscriber base in regions where competition from Netflix or Disney+ is less intense.
International Canal+ represents the main catalyst for revaluation for Vivendi’s stock in the coming years. If subscriber growth continues, the market will eventually incorporate this value into the stock price. If it slows down, the holding discount may persist.
Points of vigilance on Canal+
The rise in international markets guarantees nothing. Content acquisition costs are rising everywhere, and profitability in emerging markets remains more volatile than in the French market. The main risk remains margin compression in the face of better-capitalized competitors.
An investor entering Vivendi must monitor two indicators with each earnings release: the number of Canal+ subscribers outside France and the evolution of the average cost per subscriber.
Investing in Vivendi via a PEA: taxation and eligibility
Vivendi is an eligible stock for the PEA, making it an interesting vehicle for individual investors in France. The advantage is concrete: after five years of holding, capital gains are only subject to social contributions, with no income tax.
For a stock whose thesis relies on patience (holding discount, share buybacks, growth of international Canal+), the PEA is the most coherent wrapper. The tax framework precisely rewards the long horizon that corresponds to this investment profile.
Be cautious about a often-overlooked point: after the spin-off, shareholders received shares from the new entities. Depending on your broker, these shares may have been placed in a regular securities account rather than in the PEA. Check the exact composition of your portfolio.
Vivendi’s shareholder structure: the weight of Bolloré in the equation
The Bolloré group is the main shareholder of Vivendi. This concentration of capital influences strategic decisions, from dividend policy to restructuring operations.
For a minority shareholder, this means two things. On one hand, major decisions (spin-off, buyback, asset sales) are largely predictable, as they follow Bolloré’s wealth management logic. On the other hand, minority interests may diverge from majority interests, particularly regarding the timing and price of potential delisting operations.
The spin-off at the end of 2024, validated in the general assembly despite opposition from some minorities, illustrates this tension. Bolloré prevailed on the chosen scheme. An investor entering the stock implicitly accepts this concentrated governance.
The Vivendi stock is aimed at an investor profile that accepts the complexity of a changing holding, the volatility linked to the decisions of a dominant reference shareholder, and a return that builds over several years rather than on a quarterly dividend. The question to ask is not “Will Vivendi go up?”, but “Do I understand what I hold and why I hold it?”.